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DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends

By Russ QuinnDTN Staff Reporter OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail fertilizer prices were mixed again the third week of November 2016 with most products slightly lower while some were higher, according to fertilizer retails surveyed by DTN. Like last week, prices for six of the eight major fertilizers were lower compared to a month earlier, though none of these moves were substantial. DAP had an average price of $436 per ton, MAP $445/ton, 10-34-0 $445/ton, anhydrous $466/ton, UAN28 $219/ton and UAN32 $256/ton. The remaining two fertilizers were slightly higher in price compared to a month prior. Neither fertilizer was up significantly. Potash had an average price of $315/ton and urea was at $327/ton. On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.35/lb.N, anhydrous $0.28/lb.N, UAN28 $0.39/lb.N and UAN32 $0.40/lb.N. Last week, DTN attended the 2016 Fertilizer Outlook and Technology Conference in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, which is put on every year by The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) and the Fertilizer Industry Round Table (FIRT). While the outlooks for the different fertilizers don't include anything about prices in the presentations, they did reveal some interesting information about global nutrient supply and demand. Overall, presenters reached a common conclusion: Global nutrient supply and demand are fairly well balanced despite some overproduction in recent years. Potash, for instance, has been in an oversupply situation in 14 of the last 15 years, but this is a normal pattern for the industry. Despite the oversupply, the potash outlook is "not that bad," from a nutrient seller's perspective. Like potash, the phosphate price outlook has held up fairly well in 2016 despite high global stocks thanks to competitiveness for P across the globe. China remains an important key for the world phosphate market. In the nitrogen market, the big news continues to be the new North American nitrogen supplies that have come online in recent years or will be coming into the market in the near future. This has the potential to completely change the region's situation with both nitrogen imports and exports. DTN will have a global fertilizer series next month, which will take an in-depth look at the nitrogen, phosphorus and potash outlooks for 2017 and the coming years. In addition, the series will also take a closer look at fertilizer circumstances in other key countries. As they say in television, stay tuned. Retail fertilizers are lower compared to a year earlier. All fertilizers are now double digits lower. Urea is now down 19%, DAP is 20% less expensive and MAP is 21% lower. Both 10-34-0 and UAN32 are 23% lower, UAN28 is 24% less expensive and both potash and anhydrous are 26% lower compared to a year prior. DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time. DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business. Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32. DTN's average of retail fertilizer prices from a month earlier ($ per ton): DRY Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA Nov 16-20 2015 545 559 424 403 Dec 14-18 2015 532 544 410 392 Jan 11-15 2016 495 521 391 381 Feb 8-12 2016 479 499 378 369 Mar 7-11 2016 477 494 372 378 Apr 4-8 2016 480 504 369 387 May 2-6 2016 475 502 366 385 May 30-June 3 2016 473 499 363 375 June 27-July 1 2016 468 495 358 365 July 25-29 2016 459 492 356 356 Aug 22-26 2016 451 468 330 330 Sept 19-23 2016 443 453 319 323 Oct 17-21 2016 436 452 313 317 Nov 14-18 2016 436 445 315 327 LIQUID Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32 Nov 16-20 2015 579 629 287 332 Dec 14-18 2015 571 612 279 331 Jan 11-15 2016 572 581 272 319 Feb 8-12 2016 569 551 261 303 Mar 7-11 2016 562 541 262 312 Apr 4-8 2016 561 586 272 315 May 2-6 2016 560 589 274 321 May 30-June 3 2016 559 579 268 313 June 27-July 1 2016 554 566 266 304 July 25-29 2016 543 545 257 304 Aug 22-26 2016 502 515 234 280 Sept 19-23 2016 470 494 225 271 Oct 17-21 2016 453 475 224 265 Nov 14-18 2016 445 466 219 256 Russ Quinn can be reached at russ.quinn@dtn.com (AG\GH\SK)© Copyright 2016 DTN/The Progressive Farmer. All rights reserved.

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